Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Schreibman Down by Two Points, Maloney Now in Lead

Some very good polling numbers coming out today for two local Democratic campaigns. According to Mid-hudson News, Schreibman is now down to Gibson by just two points, and Maloney has pulled ahead Hayworth by the same margin:
In the 19th District, a survey conducted by Grove Insight, commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, found that Democrat Julian Schreibman polled 41 percent of the vote to incumbent Republican Christopher Gibson’s 43 percent. Sixteen percent are undecided.

The poll found that 44 percent are more likely to give Gibson negative reviews while 36 percent give him a positive evaluation.
Take a look at Gibson's positive and negative numbers, folks, because that's where this race has turned around. A few months ago, Gibson was seen as a squeaky-clean-war-hero-man-of-honor. And he has an excellent record as a soldier. Hell, if I were looking for someone local to organize a perimeter defense of Kingston in, say, the fall of of 1777, Gibson would be tops on my list.

But his record in congress is awful. As I've highlighted before, his record on women's health issues is just about as backwards as you can get. Gibson scores "zero" on NARAL's voting records list. Gibson also voted in lock-step with the Tea Party -- until he was forced to moderate some of his votes out of political panic. Gibson clearly saw the writing on the wall and attempted to pander to liberals. Well, it hasn't worked. And he's polling at just 43 percent, which is a long way from 50-percent-plus-one. Panic time.

Maloney, too, has done a good job of defining his opponent, another Tea Party darling who now wants to run away from her record. This too is not working:
In the 18th District, a poll commissioned by the campaign of Democrat Sean Maloney shows if the election was held today, he would receive 44 percent of the likely voters to incumbent Republican Nan Hayworth’s 42 percent.

The poll by Global Strategy Group found that 35 percent of voters rate Hayworth’s performance as positive, while 51 percent rate her performance negatively.
Again, a huge flip in the negative perception of Hayworth. Her campaign has to be in panic mode as well.

Both Gibson and Hayworth are poised to lose. The reason? The message is finally getting out there that these two are totally out-of-touch with Hudson Valley voters. While there's still a long way to go, both campaigns are in very deep trouble.

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