Schreibman Has the Momentum, Within Five Points

And Chris Gibson continues to sweat:

A new Siena College poll shows that Democrat Julian Schreibman has narrowed the lead of U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson to 5 points in the new 19th Congressional District.

Gibson had a 52-36 percent lead in September, but that edge has shrunk to 48-43 percent, according to the Siena Research Institute.

Schreibman had trailed Gibson by 16 points among independent voters six weeks ago, but now has pulled within two points with that bloc.

Gibson, of Kinderhook, has a 25-point lead in the counties surrounding Albany, which is down from 35 points.

Schreibman now leads in the Ulster and Dutchess County portion of the district by seven points, where he previously trailed by two points.

This comes fresh on the heels of the news that Schreibman is a better fundraiser than Gibson:

Democratic challenger Julian Schreibman turned the fundraising tide since July 1, outraising incumbent Rep. Chris Gibson, R-Kinderhook, by nearly $125,000.

Individual contributions were even more one-sided over that period, with 65 percent of the money going to Schreibman.

“This will ensure we can continue to make our message heard,” Schreibman said.

A number of people have said they think this race will be a blowout for Gibson. They're wrong, of course, but there's no convincing them otherwise. I think the reason for this is, many of these folks were big Hinchey supporters, and Hinchey had one of the best progressive records in Congress. So, Schreibman has some very big shoes to fill and people are concerned that he may not be live up to the standard set by Hinchey. Fair enough.

But, if you are one of these folks, ask yourself who is more likely to listen to progressive constituents, and who is more likely to educate himself about these issues: the open-minded Julian Schreibman, who, though unproven, has actually said he will support progressive planks like choice, protecting Social Security and Medicare, etc; or, the autocratic Chris Gibson, who has continually voted with the most radical members of the GOP who want to turn this nation into a feudal state (and who doesn't like people telling him he's wrong, apparently, if you watch Gibson's testy, impatient debate performances)? The choice really couldn't be any clearer.

Be sure to remember this next Tuesday.

Poll details below, for those who may be interested.

19th CD October 2012 Poll Release 2 -- FINAL