Thursday, August 2, 2012

Schreibman Within Striking Distance

As I said yesterday, any time an incumbent is polling below 50 percent, his or her people start to sweat a bit. After yesterday's internal poll by the Gibson campaign, we have an internal poll conducted by Schreibman's people. The numbers are very encouraging:
NY-19 GSG for Julian Schreibman (July 2012)

As you can see, this poll has Gibson well below where he needs to be in order to be assured of a win.

Another thing that stands out, is the fact that Schreibman has such low name recognition. Only 19 percent of the voters know who he is at the moment. We can expect major movement on these numbers, which will definitely put this race in flux. And Gibson has double the name recognition Schreibman does, but isn't cracking 50 percent (if you average these two polls together). Not good for Gibson.

Another key finding: Gibson's favorables are under water, at 28 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable. Gibson can try to distance himself from the Tea Party, but the damage has already been done, apparently. Schreibman needs to take advantage of Gibson's association with these folks.

The near-even, three-way split among voters is also encouraging. Gibson will have to win over independents in a district that is now much more left-leaning, and that won't be easy given his record.

And there may be a mild coat-tail effect, for sure. Presidential races tend to bring out voters in large numbers, though New York State has been locked in the Democratic/Obama column since Reagan (and it certainly won't be going GOP this year).

Gibson's surrogates keep touting the strength of their candidate, and that he has a big lead in the polls. But they are whistling past the graveyard. Gibson is very vulnerable and they know it. The bluster we're hearing is an attempt to take the opposition off its game.

Bottom line: Schreibman can beat Gibson, and they're clearly very nervous about this.


    Julian cant carry Congressman Gibson's jock,
    Gibson wins going away by 13 points !!!

    Write it now,

    1. The race is still Gibson's to lose, no doubt. But he's in a very weak position for a (quasi) incumbent. This election is going to be much closer than you suggest.

  2. This is the funniest thing I have read in a long time. Let me clue you in on a little something. When you campaign pays a company like Global Strategy Group big money, they will give you a nice ego stroking report like this because value you as a source of revenue and they want to make sure that you keep buying your reports from them till November. Just like the reports that George Phillips had showing that he would beat Hinchey.

    REAL BOTTOM LINE: Tell Schreibman not to give up his day job.

  3. 11:30 am

    you speak the EMMIS !!

  4. If polling companies give inaccurate polls, they will be out of business in one election cycle. This poll sounds plausible in a new congressional district. But what I find amazing is that these things are typically treated like national secrets. I am shocked that this is out in the public. The strategical information in it is virtually worthless now. I never thought Schriebman was that smart, now I know he isn't.

  5. I know political operatives supporting both sides here. Let me assure you, the Gibson people are hardly "whistling past the graveyard" as you put it. They know they have a big lead, they know they have a stronger candidate, and they know they have a lot more money. This blog focuses on Ulster County politics. The reality here is that Gibson is far ahead in most of the other counties, and is overall doing well in the new district too. The DCCC knows this as well, and they will not be putting in many precious resources for a losing candidate as this plays out. They will shift their attack heavily to Hayworth in the Hudson Valley, who actually is in a competitive race against Sean Maloney.

  6. The old adage of "figures lie and liars figure " is at play here. Pollsters are modern day P.T. Barnums. Every poll is designed by these con artists to provide both positive and negative information. Without "hope" , the candidates will not order a another poll to verify the advice given after the first poll. What a scam.!!! Cha-ching.