A recent internal poll conducted for the campaign of Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., shows the freshman Republican significantly ahead of his Democratic challenger, despite other indications that Gibson's district is more competitive.But when we get to "likely voters," the race is 49-40, which must really be causing fits with Gibson's handlers. Any time an incumbent is below the 50-percent threshold, he/she is vulnerable.
The poll, slated for release, shows Gibson leading attorney Julian Schreibman, 53 percent to 36 percent, in the newly-configured 19th Congressional District. Ten percent of likely voters are undecided, according to the memorandum from Gibson's pollster, Alexandria, Va.-based Public Opinion Strategies.
The big question, given that Gibson has the IP line, is whether he will campaign with the politically toxic Bernardo. I don't see how he can avoid appearing with her. You can't come into a county for the first time and avoid the local leadership from your own party, especially the first female chair of the UC legislature. He's probably going to have to bite the bullet and make at least one very uncomfortable appearance with her, which should be very entertaining to watch.
But if I were Gibson, I would run for the hills.
p.s. This blog is enthusiastically endorsing Schreibman. Of the two candidates, Schreibman will do a much better job of continuing Hinchey's progressive legacy.