A recent internal poll conducted for the campaign of Rep. Chris Gibson, R-N.Y., shows the freshman Republican significantly ahead of his Democratic challenger, despite other indications that Gibson's district is more competitive.But when we get to "likely voters," the race is 49-40, which must really be causing fits with Gibson's handlers. Any time an incumbent is below the 50-percent threshold, he/she is vulnerable.
The poll, slated for release, shows Gibson leading attorney Julian Schreibman, 53 percent to 36 percent, in the newly-configured 19th Congressional District. Ten percent of likely voters are undecided, according to the memorandum from Gibson's pollster, Alexandria, Va.-based Public Opinion Strategies.
The big question, given that Gibson has the IP line, is whether he will campaign with the politically toxic Bernardo. I don't see how he can avoid appearing with her. You can't come into a county for the first time and avoid the local leadership from your own party, especially the first female chair of the UC legislature. He's probably going to have to bite the bullet and make at least one very uncomfortable appearance with her, which should be very entertaining to watch.
But if I were Gibson, I would run for the hills.
p.s. This blog is enthusiastically endorsing Schreibman. Of the two candidates, Schreibman will do a much better job of continuing Hinchey's progressive legacy.
Being from a big Republican family we will refuse to support anyone who has anything to do with a Bernardo. Most of the family will not pull a lever but many will close their eyes and vote for the other person
ReplyDeleteALL of the voters in this poll were identified as likely voters. The 49-40 you reference is Gibson's advantage in the new parts of the district, which is about half. In the other half where Gibson is currently serving, he crushes Julian by 27 points, 59-32, giving an overall advantage of 17. Considering there are more enrolled R's than D's in the new District, and as you mention Gibson has the I-line which will attract 4 to 5% of the voters, he's really in strong shape to beat Julian by a sizeable margin across the 11 counties in the district.
ReplyDeleteMost people who "sign up" for the "Independence" party do so in the misunderstanding that they are registering as independents, not members of a political party, in NY called NOPs. When my partner and I moved to NY, as voting adults from another state, we both made that error, despite the lady at the boe's attempt to explain.
ReplyDeleteIt's long past time for the scam that is the "Independence Party" to be discredited and exposed. (You would think that JAIL time for one of their leaders' election crimes would have done the trick!)
There is no excuse for elected officials and the NYS BOE to allow this dirty trick against voters to persist. Any who do allow it are interested only in manipulating elections themselves.
For the record:
ReplyDeleteCongressman Chris Gibson is a true Leader.
I saw him yesterday @ The UC Fair
He ran into a SGT who served in Col. Gibson's Brigade.
After watching their reunion, a very happy one, i asked the sGT how Gibson was as a Commander of Troops.
He said their was not one person, man or WOMAN who served with Gibson, that wouldn't walk thru fire for him !!!!
A TRUE LEADER !!
We are lucky & BLESSED to have Congressman Gibson as OUR CONGRESSMAN.
Everything else is political crap, folks.
Chris Gibson is a man of values, charecter, a morally upright man,
You will never see his son in prison like Hinchey's was,
you wont see this Congressman with 3 wives,, each with a Government gig at our expense.
Yu will never see Gibson arrested for sneaking his sidearm into an airport & then lie about it.
AND
you will never see this Congressman abuse his wife like the current one did last sumer & then have the NYSP cover it up !
He wont need David Lenefsky to bail him out of personal & legal jams,
Chris Gibson is an American Hero.
Julian should call & concede NOW !!
#3: Completely agree with you on the Independence Party here in NY. It is the shining example of everything that is wrong and corrupt about New York politics.
ReplyDeleteThat said, it is an oft times essential line to have to secure victory in a close election. I actually don't think Gibson needs it to defeat Julian, but the fact he does have it makes it an 8 to 10 point swing in Gibson's favor.
Gibson defeated an much better funded incumbent two years ago by 10 points without the Inde line, so I think he easily wins by 10 + points this time around.