Friday, September 21, 2012

And NY-18 is Now a Dead Heat

The AFL-CIO commissioned a poll that eliminates Larry Weissmann from the list of polling questions in NY-18 (Siena did not not do their homework on this race, apparently):
The state AFL-CIO has released a poll it commissioned on the race between Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth and Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney. This poll suggests a dead heat — which is very different from the results of a three-day-old Siena poll finding Maloney getting creamed by 13 points.

The poll, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling, has each candidate pulling 43 percent of the voters with 14 percent undecided.

This survey makes the rather large assumption that current Working Families Party candidate Larry Weissman, who drew 10 percent in the Siena poll, “will be replaced by Sean Patrick Maloney on the November ballot.” Indeed, one question is worded thusly: “The candidates for Congress are Republican and Conservative Party candidate Nan Hayworth and Democrat and Working Families Party candidate Sean Patrick Maloney.”
And it turns out that WFP will indeed be giving its NY-18 line to Maloney:
The Working Families Party plans to give Democrat Sean Maloney its ballot line in the Hudson Valley’s 18th Congressional District, which is expected to erode some of Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth’s lead in the closely watched race.

Hayworth led Maloney 46 percent to 33 percent in a Siena poll released Tuesday.

Ten percent of likely voters backed the Working Families Party’s current candidate, Larry Weissmann. Eleven percent were undecided in the redrawn district, which covers Putnam and Orange counties as well as parts of northern Westchester and the southwest corner of Dutchess.

The Working Family Party plans to nominate Weissmann, a lawyer, to run for state Supreme Court next week, said Dan Cantor, the party’s executive director.
I hope we see another poll like this very soon. If Hayworth is really polling at 43 percent, this race is over and Maloney wins easily. Hayworth is a known quantity, and 57 percent of the voters in her district would prefer someone else. This is very bad news for her campaign, and great news for Maloney.

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