Democrats must win districts like the Capital Region’s congressional contest if they have any hope of picking up the 25 seats they need to regain control of the House. Gibson was a beneficiary of the GOP’s 2010 tidal wave — one of five Republican freshmen from New York. He is generally viewed as one of the most effective and independent of the GOP first-termers. But he’s running in a presidential year in a district that is, as a result of redistricting, more Democratic than it was two years ago. And much of the territory is new to Gibson.This district is currently "lean Republican" (as opposed to "likely Republican") on most of the lists I've seen. And the fact that both the DCCC and other groups are spending money on this race means that Gibson hasn't made the sale. Most polls show Gibson below the 50-percent barrier that would ensure victory (though one puts him over 50 percent, and another ranks the race as a "tossup"). And independents, according to surveys, appear to breaking toward the Democrats in much greater numbers than they are going for the GOP. Conservative readers of this blog can bluster all they want about their boy Gibson being a shoe-in, but this one is going down to the wire.
Of course, if the Democrats do retake the House, it's going to be with a razor-thin majority. While this may bode well for setting a more people-friendly agenda for the nation, I wouldn't expect to be able to get much done, given that Blue Dog Democrats from the South (though their ranks were cut in half after 2010) will continually monkey-wrench whatever they can get their hands on.
And, by the way, if you've got a little extra cash, why not toss Julian Schreibman a few bucks?