Monday, September 17, 2012

Retaking the House

Not that it isn't going to be a difficult proposition, but there are signs that it could be within reach. The Dems need 25 seats, and there are 30-35 competitive races out there. Houston Chronicle columnist Richard Dunham notes that our own NY-19 is a bellwether district when it comes to this possibility:
Democrats must win districts like the Capital Region’s congressional contest if they have any hope of picking up the 25 seats they need to regain control of the House. Gibson was a beneficiary of the GOP’s 2010 tidal wave — one of five Republican freshmen from New York. He is generally viewed as one of the most effective and independent of the GOP first-termers. But he’s running in a presidential year in a district that is, as a result of redistricting, more Democratic than it was two years ago. And much of the territory is new to Gibson.
This district is currently "lean Republican" (as opposed to "likely Republican") on most of the lists I've seen. And the fact that both the DCCC and other groups are spending money on this race means that Gibson hasn't made the sale. Most polls show Gibson below the 50-percent barrier that would ensure victory (though one puts him over 50 percent, and another ranks the race as a "tossup"). And independents, according to surveys, appear to breaking toward the Democrats in much greater numbers than they are going for the GOP. Conservative readers of this blog can bluster all they want about their boy Gibson being a shoe-in, but this one is going down to the wire.

Of course, if the Democrats do retake the House, it's going to be with a razor-thin majority. While this may bode well for setting a more people-friendly agenda for the nation, I wouldn't expect to be able to get much done, given that Blue Dog Democrats from the South (though their ranks were cut in half after 2010) will continually monkey-wrench whatever they can get their hands on.

And, by the way, if you've got a little extra cash, why not toss Julian Schreibman a few bucks?


  1. I dunno, dude. Julian does not seem to be setting the region on fire with his campaign prowess. There are giant Gibson signs all over Northern Dutchess and I have yet to spot even one Schreibman sign. I don't think it'll be a cakewalk for Gibson, but unless Julian has a heretofore-unseen gear he's gonna shift into next month, I don't see him winning.

  2. All the polls, all the momentum, all the energy favors Gibson. Julian is non-existent in most areas of the district, and Gibson seems to be everywhere. It's not going to be close on election day.